The big picture

Dubai casts shadow on global economic recovery

On Thursday, news that Dubai’s Investment Company, Dubai World, may default on an upcoming maturity, rocked financial markets. Dubai World asked creditors for a six-month delay in the repayment a portion of its massive US$60-billion debt – much of it owed to foreign banks. While some worry that a default could derail the global economic recovery, the numbers pale in comparison to the US$2.8 trillion in writedowns the International Monetary Fund estimates U.S. and European lenders will have made between 2007 and 2010 as a result of the global credit crisis. German banks are currently already facing 75 billion Euros (US$113 billion) of write-offs on bad loans, according to the Deutsche Bundesbank. The U.S. dollar strengthened on the Dubai news as investors sought safety. The U.S. dollar had fallen to a one-year low on Wednesday when Russia’s Central Bank said it will invest some of its foreign exchange reserves in other currencies, and specifically in Canadian dollars.

Britain reported its economy shrank for a sixth consecutive quarter, but at a slower pace, keeping alive expectations of a return to growth by year-end. The U.K. is suffering its longest stretch of GDP declines since records began in 1955, while many of its trading partners – including France, Germany, and the United States – have already emerged from recession. The worst of the global economic crisis is over and government stimulus spending on infrastructure is flowing well, according to the Executive Vice President of Cisco Systems Inc., one of the world’s largest technology companies.

Markets

World markets rattled by Dubai debt

World stock markets and commodities fell sharply after news of a potential Dubai default unnerved investors. After hitting a record high mid-week, gold prices tumbled 5% on Friday as investors sought safety in dollars and cash, and the price of oil dropped 7%.

In the markets, Manulife Financial Corporation announced it will buy a 49% stake in a Chinese wealth management company to broaden its exposure to the fast-growing Asian market. Hewlett-Packard Company tripled the size of its share repurchase program to US$12 billion, as profits rose 14% on strong performance in China. Social networking website Facebook signalled it may be preparing for a public offering. In car news, Saab faces extinction as Swedish carmaker Koenigsegg backed out of a deal with General Motors. Porsche AG reported its debt ballooned to 11.4 billion euros (US$17.1 billion) in 2009 and predicts a loss of at least 1 billion euros (US$1.5 billion) in 2010. Volkswagen AG will acquire a 49.9% stake in Porsche AG by year-end as the first step of a merger to be finalized in 2011. Jewellery retailer Tiffany & Co. sparkled in the beaten-down luxury market, posting a better-than-expected third-quarter profit.   

The big picture

U.S. manufacturing grows amid rising unemployment

Showing unexpected strength, the U.S. manufacturing sector grew in October at its fastest pace since April 2006, suggesting U.S. gross domestic product is growing at an annualized rate of 4.5% in the fourth quarter. The manufacturing index rose for the third consecutive month in October after 18 consecutive months of contractions. The services sector grew for a second straight month in October, but at a slower pace than in September. Despite this growth, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2% in October, the highest since April 1983, with the largest job losses in construction, manufacturing and retail.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is still predicting growth in the second half of 2009, even though recent GDP data indicated that the economy contracted in the third quarter. The BoC predicts the economy will grow 3.0% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2011. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Monday that Canadians should not expect the employment market to recover as quickly as the general economy. “The recovery in jobs will lag recovery of the economy. That is to be expected. That is the lesson of past recessions. It takes time for businesses to regain confidence, to reinvest in their businesses and thereby create jobs.” Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 8.6% in October from 8.4% a month earlier as the economy shed 60,000 part-time jobs. Full-time employment increased slightly.

Markets

Stocks rally; GM does a U-turn

The TSX surged this week as gold prices reached a record US$1,101 after a pledge from the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low weakened the U.S. dollar, and billionaire Warren Buffett bet big on the U.S economic recovery. North American markets also rallied on strong U.S. manufacturing data and better-than-expected earnings by technology bellwether Cisco, although the TSX was hit by surprise losses from Sun Life and Manulife.

General Motors did a U-turn, scrapping plans to sell Opel to Canadian auto parts supplier Magna. Unions are seething as GM Europe will now revert to a reorganization plan that chops fixed costs at Opel by 30%. Enbridge reported third-quarter profit more than doubled to $300 million versus one year ago. Warren Buffett will make his biggest ever investment, buying Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway for US$44 billion in what the billionaire described as “an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.” BlackBerry maker Research In Motion fell more than 6% on Monday after an analyst told investors to sell the stock because of mounting competition and an influx of new phones and applications.